Weekly Rate Report — W12-2026
White Doe Inn · March 22, 2026 · 21 days since reopening
1. Since We Opened (Mar 02 – Mar 22)
$17,609
Revenue (21d)
-20%
33%
Occupancy
-14.3pp
$283
ADR
+17%
$93
RevPAR
-20%
63
Room-Nights
-30%
ADR up 17% ($283 vs $243). Rate model is delivering.
Occupancy 14pp below last year. Expected post-renovation. Watch for weekly improvement.
2. Room Performance
| Room | Rank | Nights | ADR | Model Rate | vs Model | 2025 ADR | YoY | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garden | 1/1 | 9 | $338 | $358 | -5% | $298 | +14% | |
| Raleigh | 2/5 | 7 | $262 | $343 | -24% | $195 | +34% | RANK SHIFT |
| Turret | 3/7 | 7 | $238 | $331 | -28% | $179 | +33% | RANK SHIFT |
| East Lake | 4/9 | 5 | $262 | $317 | -17% | $218 | +20% |
RANK SHIFT
LOW OCC |
| Virginia Dare | 5/6 | 6 | $296 | $302 | -2% | $263 | +13% | LOW OCC |
| Scuppernong | 6/2 | 12 | $208 | $290 | -28% | $235 | -12% | RANK SHIFT |
| Tower | 7/8 | 4 | $329 | $276 | +19% | $267 | +23% | LOW OCC |
| Garret | 8/4 | 6 | $328 | $264 | +24% | $239 | +37% |
RANK SHIFT
LOW OCC |
| Roanoak | 9/3 | 7 | $315 | $250 | +26% | $229 | +37% | RANK SHIFT |
Rank = model / actual. vs Model = is the guest paying rack rate? Negative means packages or discounts pulling ADR below published rate.
3. Elasticity Tracker
Price elasticity per room. Elasticity < -1.0 = rate increases lose net revenue. Building this dataset — signal improves weekly.
| Room | Elasticity | R² | p-value | 95% CI | n | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Lake | 0.00 | nan | nan | [nan, nan] | 245 | n.s. |
| Garden | 0.00 | nan | nan | [nan, nan] | 269 | n.s. |
| Garret | -0.00 | 0.00 | 1.000 | [-0.00, 0.00] | 209 | n.s. |
| Raleigh | -0.00 | 0.00 | 1.000 | [-0.00, 0.00] | 221 | n.s. |
| Roanoak | -0.00 | 0.00 | 1.000 | [-0.00, 0.00] | 190 | n.s. |
| Scuppernong | 0.00 | nan | nan | [nan, nan] | 205 | n.s. |
| Tower | -0.00 | 0.00 | 1.000 | [-0.00, 0.00] | 202 | n.s. |
| Turret | 0.00 | nan | nan | [nan, nan] | 222 | n.s. |
| Virginia Dare | 0.00 | nan | nan | [nan, nan] | 238 | n.s. |
4. Forward Booking Pace
121
30-Day Nights
$33,783 rev
263
60-Day Nights
$78,361 rev
353
90-Day Nights
$108,679 rev
Room revenue on the books vs same point last year. Sorted by 2026 revenue (what matters most).
| Room | 2026 Nights | ADR | Room Rev | 2025 Nights | ADR | Room Rev | Night Δ | Rev Δ | WoW Δ | 30d | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garden | 107 | $367 | $39,251 | 113 | $328 | $37,068 | -5% | +6% | +14N | 17 | AHEAD |
| Virginia Dare | 83 | $293 | $24,356 | 100 | $288 | $28,835 | -17% | -16% | +5N | 17 | BEHIND |
| Scuppernong | 76 | $303 | $23,012 | 55 | $302 | $16,631 | +38% | +38% | +13N | 14 | AHEAD |
| Raleigh | 74 | $286 | $21,187 | 81 | $243 | $19,701 | -9% | +8% | +7N | 14 | AHEAD |
| Tower | 65 | $325 | $21,133 | 75 | $297 | $22,276 | -13% | -5% | +4N | 21 | WATCH |
| Turret | 75 | $272 | $20,435 | 115 | $254 | $29,244 | -35% | -30% | +7N | 11 | BEHIND |
| Garret | 59 | $323 | $19,039 | 58 | $321 | $18,632 | +2% | +2% | +5N | 14 | WATCH |
| East Lake | 64 | $279 | $17,864 | 116 | $247 | $28,679 | -45% | -38% | +7N | 3 | BEHIND |
| Roanoak | 45 | $294 | $13,251 | 47 | $274 | $12,873 | -4% | +3% | +5N | 10 | WATCH |
| TOTAL | 648 | $199,528 | 760 | $213,940 | -15% | -7% | +67N | 121 |
Forward revenue down 7%. Monitor for rate resistance vs renovation disruption.
5. This Week
| Priority | Action | Why |
|---|---|---|
| NOTE | Scuppernong is +38% revenue | Multiplier may be conservative. Flag for November review. |
Standing Decision Rules
Room pace >20% behind for 2 weeks + not improving WoW → reduce minimum stay to 1 night
Room pace >30% behind for 3 weeks → review multiplier, consider 0.05 reduction
Room pace >30% ahead for 3 weeks → flag for multiplier increase in November
Elasticity crosses -1.0 (significant) → freeze rate increases for that room, investigate
Never discount to fill rooms. Value-adds over rate cuts. "85% at proper rates beats 100% at discounted rates."
Room pace >30% behind for 3 weeks → review multiplier, consider 0.05 reduction
Room pace >30% ahead for 3 weeks → flag for multiplier increase in November
Elasticity crosses -1.0 (significant) → freeze rate increases for that room, investigate
Never discount to fill rooms. Value-adds over rate cuts. "85% at proper rates beats 100% at discounted rates."